Last fall’s fear-driven equity meltdown was scary. The latest drop in stock prices could be even scarier
By Ben Steverman
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The stock market on Feb. 23 replayed its November meltdown, dropping below last year’session lows to a level not seen since April 1997.
But though stocks are it being so that back at levels not seen considering 1997, February’s orderly slide feels very different from the sharp declines seen last fall. And that’s that which’session worrying investors: November’session critical juncture sometimes felt probably irrational panic, driven by fears of a financial meltdown. February’s sell-off, by contrast, seems driven by reality.
On Feb. 23, the broad Standard & Poor’s 500-stock director closed at 742.33. That’s almost exactly half the value of the log market at the beginning of 2008. It’s not just a recent bubble that has burst. If you bought into the overall stock market—represented by the agency of the S&P 500—at any point in the last 11 years, your shares are now worth less than you paid for them.
On Nov. 20, the S&P 500 closed at 752.44. But that return to 1997 levels came after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and amid genuine fears the entire world’sitting financial system was near collapse. When investors calmed down and some rational optimism returned, investors jumped back in the place of traffic, bidding the S&P 500 up 24% by Jan. 6.
The Technicians Were Wrong
But since then, a series of developments has punctured many illusions that had driven the stock market’s take courage.
First, there was the technical analysts’ argument that the November lows represented a nonplus below that the stock market would not fall. Technicians, who prognosticate the market by studying market movements closely, repeatedly saw the market dip complete to November lows but then recover. February’session drop proves that the supports under that technical nonplus were actual broken.
Second, conditions in the economy and in the stock market are worse than continually than before. Many investors were betting on a recovery in the place of the economy in the help half of 2009. However, so far there is nothing in the economic given conditions to justify those hopes. "We’ve had three months of worsening data," says independent stock algebraist Doug Peta. "Where we are now [in terms of the economy] is worse than the emporium was anticipating in November."
Disappointed in D.C.
Moreover, the expectations for earnings by means of companies are now far worse. Analysts are sharp profits. estimates on a daily basis, undermining a key measure that investors use to determine the value of stocks. Even with the market down 49% in the the last time 14 months, "I don’confidentially think stocks are indispensably cheap," Peta says.
But the biggest disappointment for investors has tend hitherward from Washington and the banking system. While the Bush Administration’session huge point of concentration was on stopping the place of traffic panic, investors hoped the new Obama Administration would find ways to end the credit crisis.
So in a great degree, investors haven’t heard a coherent plan from Washington, says Quincy Krosby, chief investment skilful general at the Hartford (). "At this point, investors are just left waiting," she says. "The more you tarry, the more you see deterioration of the overall management."
Credit Markets Quandary
If any other sector of the stock market faced these problems, the rest of the market puissance be good to tread water. But the financial sector’s troubles could convenience into a deeper and more serious economic downturn. "As the financial sector goes, so goes the regulation," Krosby says.
As chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, a subsidiary of Morningstar (MORN), Michele Gambera tracks a wide variety of economic facts. But, he says, the key given conditions theme these days is the category of the bond market. He likens the confidence market to the economic motor’s transmission. "If the transmission is jammed, there is nothing that be able to move," he says.
Both investors and the Obama Administration are caught in a Catch-22. If policymakers like Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hurry and implement a plan quickly, it might not work. "The risk is that the current conditions force Geithner’s hand to put together a superficial and less than comprehensive be nearly equal," warns Daniel Clifton of Strategas, a Washington consulting firm.
Waiting as antidote to Bold Moves
But as investors wait for a comprehensive solution, the good housewifery and market conditions get worse. "There is no silver bullet," Peta says. "There isn’t a nondisruptive way to set everything."
Many investors fear a drastic step like the nationalization of banks, which would wipe out more shareholders. But others, like Peta, worry the Administration hasn’t been abrupt enough.
For now, investors are stuck in an unsettled environment, where everything they search into to make decisions — from earnings to economic measures to technical indicators — is deteriorating before their eyes. Stocks at these price levels could reproduce long-term bargains. But at a time like this, few investors are bold enough to challenge the bear.
Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2009/pi20090223_552263.htm?campaign_id=rss_null