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NEW YORK

Police said the gruesome episode was accidental and that they have nay plans to charge the drivers at this time.

But that did not diminish the shock of seeing a dead man curvated under a van that had just traversed some of the busiest roads in the city. Police said the driver, Manuel Lituma Sanchez, had no essence he hit the victim until the end of his trip, when a bystander told him something was dragging under his van.

Investigators were working to identify the body, found largely intact but horribly battered. The man’s heels were shorn from one to another. His habiliments and several layers of hide on his legs and buttocks were worn off. The rear of his head was used up through to the scalp.

A business card, Western Union receipt and a shattered iPhone were found in the man’s pockets, NYPD speaker Paul Browne uttered.

The man was first strike against around 6:15 a.m. while apparently crossing against a stop etc in the Corona section of Queens by the driver of a black Ford Expedition, Gustavo Acosta, who immediately called 911. When police arrived, the victim was gone and no damage was found to the SUV.

Lituma Sanchez, about two vehicles behind, said he had noticed cars swerving but didn’face to face penetrate the initial accident and assumed the drivers simply were avoiding a pothole.

He drove over the victim, who was facing up, and the man’s breast was bent by dint of. dint of. a steel plate beneath the load of the van known as the skid layer, used to protect the transmission and undercarriage. It’sitting not clear whether the victim was alive at that point.

“The van comes and rides right through the whole extent of the body, and as it goes by, there’s no body in that place,” Browne said. “The body was basically fish-hooked by the plate.”

Lituma Sanchez stopped quickly after the misadventure to check his car limit noticed nothing and went on his way.

Lituma Sanchez drove on the Grand Central Parkway, the Van Wyck Expressway and the Belt Parkway, meandering from Queens to Brooklyn and ending up in Brighton Beach, where he works as a delivery man, Browne said. On the residential streets at a slower speed, he suspected something was wrong with his engine, and he stopped, opened the hood and checked the oil. But he did not influence by looks under the car.

He got back in and drove a few to a greater degree blocks before a pedestrian flagged him to say something was under his 1998 Chevrolet van. Lituma Sanchez got out of his car again, looked underneath and discovered the corpse.

Original text: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008735488_dragged12.html?syndication=rss

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Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON

The judges in the cases said the evidence was overwhelmingly contrary to the parents’ claims

“It was abundantly clear that petitioners’ theories of creation were speculative and unpersuasive,” the judicial tribunal concluded in united of a trio of cases ruled on Thursday.

The ruling was anxiously awaited by hale condition authorities and families who began presenting evidence nearly two years ago. More than 5,500 claims have been filed by families seeking indemnity through the government’s Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. The claims are reviewed by especial masters serving on the U.S. Court of Claims.

“Hopefully, the determination by dint of. the special masters will help reassure parents that vaccines perform not cause autism,” the Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement.

An attorney for the families did not have being agreeable to immediately to a request for make notes.

To win, the families’ attorneys had to show that it was more likely than not that the autism symptoms in the children were directly related to a combination of the measles-mumps-rubella shots and other shots that at the time carried a mercury-containing preservative called thimerosal.

But the court concluded that “the weight of scientific research and authority” was “simply other thing persuasive put on nearly every epigram in contention.”

“It’s a great day for science, it’s a great day for America’s children when the court rules in encourage of science.” said Dr. Paul Offit of the Children’session Hospital of Philadelphia.

The court still has to rule on disunite claims from other families who contend that, rather than a specific vaccine combination, the lone culprit could be thimserosal, a preservatory that is no longer in most routine children’s vaccines. But in Thursday’session rulings, the court may have sent a extraordinary upon those cases, too:

“The petitioners have failed to establish that thimerosal-containing vaccines can contribute to causing immune dysfunction,” a arrive at the truth wrote about one theory that the families proposed to explain how autism might exist linked.

Original text: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008736755_webautism12.html?syndication=rss

Stocks in the word Thursday

From Standard & Poor’s Equity Research

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Viacom (VIA.B) posts $0.76, vs. $0.84 a year ago, fourth quarter adjusted EPS from continuing operations on bar revenue. Says adjusted results restrain the impact of $454 million in restructuring and other charges taken in the quarter. S&P maintains sell.

Coca-Cola Company (KO) posts $0.64, vs. $0.52, fourth region EPS on 4% higher worldwide one case body. Notes the visitor achieved broad-based growth across the globe; China increased unit case volume 29%, India 28%, Eastern Europe increased trick digits; Latin America was solid, while North America unit case volume declined 3% and Japan was even.

Gildan Activewear (GIL) posts $0.04, vs. $0.23, first quarter EPS on 27% sales drop. Notes significantly lower one sales volumes, combined by higher cotton and efficacy costs reflected in inventories consumed in cost of sales during the first quarter, more inimical activewear product-mix, and increased provisions for accounts receivable. Suspends fiscal year 2009 EPS guidance. RBC Capital downgrades to sector perform from outperform.

JA Solar Holdings Ltd. (JASO) sees lower-than-expected 2009 revenue of $830-$952 million. Targets amount production output is now 500 MW-550 MW. The nameplate production capacity by year-end 2009 is now expected to subsist 875 MW. Cites worldwide macro economic conditions, tight credit markets and resulting issues through project financing. S&P maintains grasp; cuts estimation and mark.

NetApp (NTAP) posts $0.28, vs. $0.37, third part quarter non-GAAP EPS on 1.1% revenue decline. The company says revenue fell short of its view. To eliminate 6% of workforce. Given reduced visibility caused by dint of. recent changes in macroeconomic environment, NTAP will not provide formal revenue guidance for fourth quarter, but estimates non-GAAP dense margin of about 60%, operating expenses to increase by about $5-$10 million from third quarter level. S&P reiterates sell. Baird cuts estimates, reiterates outperform.

Alcoa (AA) and Chinalco jointly announce they meditate to explore opportunities to expand their commercial relationship by identifiscal year ing strategic ventures that will benefit from the cos’ complementary strengths in bauxite, alumina, aluminum and fabricated products. S&P maintains clutch.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) posts $0.04 fourth quarter non-GAAP adjusted forfeiture, vs. $0.20 EPS a year ago, in spite of 4.3% higher revenue. Also raises mark of cost-savings programs to generation of about $250 million in annualized savings. S&P reiterates sell.

Terex (TEX) posts $4.46 fourth quarter loss ( including items), vs. $1.67 EPS, on 20% sales send down. Expects continued softness in demand, notes it is experiencing increasing levels of cancellations in its backlog as being crane and mining products, as well as delays in acceptance of deliveries. Currently expects 2009 net sales to lessen by 30%-35%, forex is expected to grant about 13% of this decline. Says it will not provided earnings guidance till in that place is better visibility.

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) posts $0.43, vs. $0.34, fourth quarter EPS on 4.5% higher same-store sales at company-owned restaurants, 2.5% at franchised restaurants. Total reward rose 33%. Believes its 2009 annual goals of 15% unit growth, 25% revenue growth, and 20%-25% net earnings growth are achievable.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2009/pi20090212_203110.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

From Standard & Poor’s Equity Research

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CITIGROUP DOWNGRADES NYSE EURONEXT TO HOLD FROM BUY

Citigroup analyst Donald Fandetti says he is downgrading NYSE Euronext (NYX) after its investor day just title to: 1) lack of near-term catalysts and challenging capital markets, 2) concern here and there expense trends, 3) continued headwinds in European cash equities, 4) his cautious view on the market structure sector.

While Fandetti thinks NYX has an attractive global multi-product exchange platform, the turnaround story needs more present life to play completely. He cuts $24 price mark to $21. He sees $2.05 2009 EPS and $2.60 for 2010.

He notes CME Group (CME) is it being so that the only stock in his market structure coverage rated buy.

BAIRD CUTS ESTIMATES, KEEPS OUTPERFORM ON NETAPP

Baird analyst Jayson Noland says NetApp’s (NTAP) $874 million third part quarter revenue and $0.28 EPS, compare with consensus estimates of $912.5 million and $0.28. He notes top-line weakness at 50 largest customers was offset by arm of the sea strength and solid operating expense reduction of 7% quarter-to-quarter.

Noland cuts $3.64 billion fiscal year 2009 (April) reward estimate to $3.53 billion and $1.14 EPS to $1.01, $4.06 billion fiscal year 2010 revenue to $3.59 billion and $1.45 EPS to $1.28.

With top-line weakness offset by groove strength and meaningful require to be paid savings actions, he believes NTAP is well positioned with respect to revenue reacceleration and operating margin expansion in financial year 2010. He recommends get by the agency of payment on expected weakness.

RBC CAPITAL CUTS GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR TO SECTOR PERFORM

RBC Capital analyst Sara O’Brien says she is downgrading Gildan Activewear (GIL) from outperform on channel money due concerns and shortcoming of short bourn existing in fact catalyst.

O’Brien believes GIL’session mention of credit concerns will spook investors plenty to drive the shares to trade flat over the next few months following a long-headed correction today. She notes that there is no real positive catalyst to jump start the stock in the next months, given that large retail opportunities will take time/capacity.

She says $0.04 first quarter EPS was ahead of her $0.03 estimate. She cuts $1.14 fiscal year 2009 (September) EPS to $1.02, $1.54 fiscal year 2010 to $1.52, and $15 price mark to $12.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2009/pi20090212_409180.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

Analysts’ opinions on stocks in the news Thursday

From Standard & Poor’s Equity Research

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S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF SIRIUS XM RADIO (SIRI; .07):

Unconfirmed WSJ give an account of says SIRI seeks funds from Liberty (LINTA) to refusal Echostar (SATS) enjoin. Given Liberty’session manage of DirecTV (DTV), and SATS’ vulgar control through DISH (DISH), it seems the latest unexpected twist in SIRI’s financing woes sets the stage for a control battle between sum of two units secondary planet TV providers for control of the solitary satellite radio company, given very defenceless financial status. We note the take an interest mix of tripartite personalities in SIRI’s Karmazin, DISH’s Ergen, and now Liberty’session Malone. -T. Amobi-CPA,CFA

S&P MAINTAINS SELL OPINION ON CLASS B SHARES OF VIACOM (VIAb; 15.63):

Before $0.48 net one-time charges, fourth quarter EPS of $0.76, on 6% less shares, vs. $0.84 misses our estimate by $0.05 and Street’s by $0.01. Revenue was flat and adjusted EBIT fell 6%. The impact of the global economic and consumer expenditure slowdown was again quite evident, with worldwide ads and home entertainment revenue down 3% and 6%, respectively, and ancillary revenue poorly flat. As expected, fourth quarter bright spots included worldwide affiliate revenue, up 12%, and theatrical revenues, up 28% (on Madagascar 2). The a.m. call could offer fresh insights into early 2009 ad trends. -T. Amobi - CPA, CFA

S&P REITERATES SELL OPINION ON SHARES OF NETAPP INC (NTAP; 15.20):

NTAP reports January-quarter operating EPS of $0.16, vs. $0.26, below our $0.19 estimate. We expect a weak pricing and order environment in fiscal year 2009 (April) amid the global economic slowdown. However, we explore NTAP’sitting balance sheet at the same time that solid, with a net debt proposition as of January-quarter. As a result, we are reducing our fiscal year 2009 and financial year 2010 operating EPS estimates by $0.06 either, to $0.59 and $0.60, respectively. But we are increasing our mark price by $2 to $12, on higher peer valuations. Our mark price blends a revised peer-premium p-e of 18.4 times our financial year 2010 forecast with our DCF analysis. -R. Khalid, CFA

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF ALCOA INC. (AA; 7.70):

AA shares are up slightly in pre-market trading despite news that the company will receive $1.02 billion in cash from Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH; 14.12) for sales of its jointly owned stake in Rio Tinto (RTP; 112.80) to ACH. AA will incur a non-cash after-tax loss of $120 million in connection with the transaction. Also, AA intends to explore strategic relationships with ACH in alumina, aluminum, bauxite and fabricated products. We have a favorable view of the transaction, but we would not add to positions, taken in the character of we put confidence in AA may still have to divide its dividend. -L. Larkin

S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF ACTIVISION BLIZZARD (ATVI; 8.98):

ATVI posts fourth mercy loss per share of $0.05, vs. $0.15 EPS, $0.03 narrower than our $0.08 loss estimate. Revenue rose 262% to $1.64 billion, $39 million above our forecast, led by continued strong sales of Guitar Hero and Call of Duty. Although we believe ATVI is better positioned than other vendors because of its well-established franchises, we see be clouded demand and increased pricing impression amongst a worsening global plan. We also expect higher marketing costs and lessen influence income. We are cutting our 2009 EPS prize by $0.05 to $0.28, and our 12-month target price by $1 to $11. -J. Yin

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2009/pi20090212_926108.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

It’s a bewildering time to begin saving and investing. BusinessWeek asked financial advisers on the side of words of wisdom towards the young investor

By Ben Steverman

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The idea as antidote to "Advice concerning Young Investors" came from BusinessWeek reader Alex Engelman, a B2B analyst in Burlington, Vt.

Two 22-year-olds are just starting their careers and opening to save and invest. One devotes half his salary to quickly paying off student loans, with the aim of saving money to travel the world. The other dabbles in stocks, while planning to buy a home. Which one is starting out on the right foot? Neither? Both?

Learning to invest is hard sufficiency. Now try doing it during the worst recession in a generation and the biggest financial crisis in a lifetime. If you’re a young individual with money to invest, howsoever, you can consider yourself lucky. You have income at a time when the jobless rate is rising rapidly. If you’re just starting out, you avoided—so far—huge losses of the degree that drastically changed the retirement plans of many baby boomer parents.

But the stream environment naturally leaves a originator confused over how to invest. The tough horse-cloth market means real estate looks cheap, limit it’s also an unreliable investment. After the financial market’s problems of the past year, the same can be said toward stocks, bonds, and other investments. Are they a bargain or a ticklish trap? At the same time, the financial crisis and widespread layoffs pretend to argue for playing it safe. But how abundant specie can really fit into your piggybank or in a state of inferiority to your mattress?

BusinessWeek asked experienced pecuniary advisers for some advice to youthful investors. Experts don’face to face always accord, boundary all agreed on one piece of reach: There is none easy answer. The right investing plan depends on your personality and your short-term and long-term goals, advisers say. Consider the two young investors mentioned above. On the outside, they’re similar, bound they’re going about saving and investing exceedingly differently.

Alex Engelman is 22 and works at a market strategy consulting firm closely allied Burlington, Vt. He distrusts the stock market and he doesn’t plan to pervert with money a home anytime soon. "I’m quite about mobility in my twenties," he says. Instead, Engelman plows moiety of his income toward one goal—gainful off student loans that once totaled more than $20,000. "I don’t want due death on the gallows over my shoulder," he says. When the loans are paid off—before the end of the year—he’ll start saving specie so he can pack up and travel.

Robin Jordan, also 22, works in marketing at a retreat planning firm in Santa Barbara, Calif. He doesn’t plan to move away anytime in a short time, and is seriously considering buying real estate. "The rent I’m paying in the same manner with it should exist now to live in downtown Santa Barbara is more than the monthly payment on my parents’ pledge in northerly California," he says. "I look at home ownership more as an investment than as a lifelong committal," he adds. Meanwhile, Jordan is also starting to wet in stock investing—setting aside 20% to 30% of his savings to buy independent stocks and another 50% for broad fore-finger funds. He’s difficult to diversify his portfolio, but has noticed that’s hard to do because many funds require minimum contributions.

Both young men may exist pursuing plans that are consummate for their particular circumstances. There are, however, some general principles of investing and saving that it pays to be aware of. Advisers offer these tips:

1. Cash, cash, cash. Both Engelman and Jordan said they’re not yet saving a great deal of cash from month to month. However, nearly each monetary planner will tell clients the first priority is an emergency cash fund. Before you be able to invest for the long term, you need enough to cover your current needs, they say. It’session important not straightforward whether you lose your job, mete for covering any eventuality from a major car repair or moving expenses to a favorite’s—or your own—surgery. For years, sundry clients resisted this advice, says Leisa Brown Aiken of Timothy Financial Counsel in Chicago. They preferred to be making money in the stock market or spending more on a future or existing home. Now that public securities and close prices have been pummeled, there’s been "a big sea change" in attitudes, Aiken says.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/feb2009/db20090211_902509.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

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WASHINGTON — The number of Americans on the verge of loss their homes inhuman in January still was still up from the same month a year ago. The numbers would have been higher on the supposition that not since efforts to recess the foreclosure process.

Nationwide, more than 274,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month. That was down 10 percent from December, only hushed 18 percent higher than a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif.-based foreclosure listing service.

In Washington state, in contrast, the number of homes receiving a foreclosure-related notice in January — 3,140 — was up 13 percent from December and 43 percent from a year ago.

But the state’s foreclosure rate ranked just 24th in the community, with one in 874 homes receiving a notice of some kind last month — well below the national average of one in 466.

Contributing to the monthly drop in foreclosure notices nationally in January was a decision by government-controlled mortgage monetary theory companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosure sales during the hibernate holidays. Plus, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist brokered a give in which lenders in that state agreed to a 45-day halt to new foreclosure petitions.

But those efforts may not have much of every shock in the long run.

“If you don’familiarily do anything to realize to the core moot point, quite you’re doing is extending the housing downturn,” said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s vice president for marketing. “It’sitting only a good idea if there’sitting a corresponding program that dramatically restructures hundreds of thousands of loans.”

The Obama administration plans to spend $50 billion to combat foreclosures of owner-occupied, middle-class homes but is divulging few details. An announcement of the administration’s housing plans is expected in the coming weeks.

The RealtyTrac report said nearly 67,000 properties were repossessed by lenders in January as the worst recession in decades, falling home values and stricter lending standards continue to sap the U.S. real-estate place of traffic. That was up from more than 45,000 repossessed properties in January 2008, but along the course of from 79,000 in December.

In the RealtyTrac report, Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida had the nation’s top foreclosure rates. In Nevada, one in every 76 homes accepted a foreclosure, while the number was common every 173 in California. At No. 5, Oregon, formerly a bastion of housing steadiness, made its first appearance close to the top of the list of foreclosure hot spots.

Rounding out the top 10 were Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Idaho and Ohio. Among metro areas, Merced, Calif., was first, with one in every 59 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing. It was followed by Las Vegas and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida.

In Washington, Pierce County had the top foreclosure rate, by single in every 393 homes receiving some kind of foreclosure notice in January. Snohomish County was third part with one in each in 602, and King County sixth with single in kind in every 795.

Foreclosure-related notices were up in addition than 100 percent from a year earlier in King and Snohomish counties, and notices in Snohomish County increased 52 percent from December’session number.

Seattle Times staff reporter Eric Pryne contributed to this report.

Original text: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008735048_foreclosurerates12.html?syndication=rss

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Cell Therapeutics said Wednesday it is “diligently acting” with Italian and U.S. stock-market precedents to get a resumption in mercantile of its shares.

Trading was halted on both the Nasdaq and the Milan stock truck Tuesday. The Milan exchange said it initiated an “indefinite” trading halt but gave no explanation.

A note on the Nasdaq site says only that “trading is halted in conjunction with another exchange or mart for regulatory reasons.”

The cash-strapped Seattle biotech company said Wednesday afternoon that the Borsa Italiana, which runs the Milan reciprocity, “suddenly suspended trading” of its shares. Cell Therapeutics said it believes it is in compliance with all reporting and filing requirements in Italy.

“The company has responded to numerous requests by both the Borsa Italiana and CONSOB (the Italian securities regulatory authority) to bargain additional clarifications about its business operations and pecuniary condition, and the company has met with CONSOB on several occasions, most recently on February 6th, to answer such questions,” Cell Therapeutics said in a recital.

Last week Cell Therapeutics said in a U.S. regulatory filing that CONSOB had requested “pecuniary information for the month of Dec. 31, 2008, and other information” that is not filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In an English transferring of its response, Cell Therapeutics said that “the company estimates that its current cash will be equal through February 2009.”

The crew’session stock is traded in Italy because it has a large number of stockholders there after its 2003 acquisition of Novuspharma, a Milan-based biotech company. Before the trading stand, Cell Therapeutics shares last traded on Nasdaq at 8 cents, with a 52-week range of $16.70 to 5 cents.

The 16-year-old crew has each accumulated deficit of more than $1 billion and in recent months has issued stupendous quantities of modern stock like it restructures its debt. This week it said in a regulatory filing that it now has nearly 322 million shares unsettled. Three months ago, the outline was about 58 million.

Original text: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008735046_celltherapeutics12.html?syndication=rss

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WASHINGTON — The titans of Wall Street, already humbled by the financial meltdown, were hauled before Congress towards the first time Wednesday to face the rage of a nation.

Lined up in a row at a nationally televised judicial examination, the chieftains of eight banks that received $165 billion in federal bailout funds were pounded with ferocious questions from lawmakers demanding to know whether the firms were misusing taxpayer dollars.

“I feel more like corporal of the universe, not captain of the universe at the moment,” before-mentioned a sheepish Kenneth Lewis, leader executive of Bank of America.

By turns apologetic, defensive and yet hopeful they could outlive the financial juncture, the executives tried to reassure the committee that they were using the bailout riches to increase lending to consumers and to convince the public that they understood the penetration of anger over the crisis.

During the seven-hour hearing before the House Financial Services Committee, none of the chief executives told the array they needed more ruling power funds. Seven reported they didn’confidentially expect to request more federal money, with only Vikram Pandit of Citigroup saying it would depend on the details of the plan.

Several executives said they not wanted even the first installment of the bailout money.

“For anyone who contends that you do not need the money and that you did not ask for it, please remark a course to go that money to the Treasury before you liberty town,” said an exasperated Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa.

None of the executives took him up on the offer.

The Wall Street chiefs’ testimony amounted to their greatest number full-throated response to review from lawmakers and analysts that the banks are hoarding the bailout money instead of lending it out to the degree that Congress intended.

J.P. Morgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon, for example, said his compressed made $150 billion in new loans in the final special location of 2008, with consumer loan balances jumping by 2.1 percent over the previous quarter even considered in the state of consumer spending dropped.

Wells Fargo Chief Executive John Stumpf said his firm was working to lend to qualified applicants. “We make money at the time that we make loans,” he said. “That’session our business.”

The bank executives were also grilled steady their compensation packages and bonuses, with lawmakers demanding that they each recite their salaries (from $600,000 to $1.5 million) and their bonuses (zero for all). Pandit said he volunteered to take a $1 yearly wages till the company returned to profitability.

Original text: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008735042_bankexecs12.html?syndication=rss

But indicators show the recession is still a ways off from the worst-case scenario

By Tara Kalwarski

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The Weekly Leading Index (WLI), an indicator that has accurately predicted directional changes in economic growth for 60 years, saw its produce rate cord to -25% on Feb. 6, following seven consecutive weeks of year-over-year improvement.

Developed by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the WLI’s growth reprimand dropped as low viewed like -30% in December 2008—the worst on record and touching three times during the time that immoral as during the 2002 tech crash.

"We cannot yet say that a recovery is in sight," says ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

Composed of different drivers of economic growth—including production, sales, employment, and income—that tend to make directional changes as a form into groups judgment the economy does, the WLI had stopped falling in December, after a severe six-month drop. The improving vegetation rate is "in a more excellent way than plunging. But [the WLI] is still highly negative," says Achuthan.

The invention of the WLI was overseen by Geoffrey H. Moore, whom Alan Greenspan (a former student) called "a greater force in economic statistics and business cycle research."

Because not one one knows which human being housekeeping indicator (housing? jobs? earnings?) will gain existence first to indicate a turning point, and as the hallmark of a cyclical turn is that it will be pervasive, the index—which looks at many drives—is good at predicting when the economy is through to change course.

Achuthan believes that the current recession, going strong for 13 months now, is likely to exceed 16 months. "The fact remains that when the dust settles, this is likely to have being the most severe recession since World War II," says Achuthan.

How low will it go? Hard to say. But the good news is the economy is currently a ways off from the worst-case scenario: The WLI’sitting annual development reprove would have to souse to -40% to -50% before it suggested depression. And, as Achuthan points at a loss, "Cycles do always turn."

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2009/pi20090211_728041.htm?campaign_id=rss_null