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Comparing last year’s job losses to those of to a greater degree than 60 years ago isn’t quite unencumbered. That said, there’session still room for things to get worse

By Peter Coy

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The U.S. is in the grip of a discouraging recession, but let’session not scare ourselves silly by making things seem worse than they positively are. Headlines blared "worst seeing that 1945" on Jan. 9 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the U.S. management lost 524,000 jobs in December and 2.6 million in the place of 2008 while a whole. Fact is, it’session ridiculous to estimate relatively do job-work losses in 2008 to ones more than 60 years earlier, when the U.S. population and economy were much smaller.

In percentage terms, the U.S. lost 1.9% of its payroll employment in 2008, according to data released Jan. 9. That’s bad, all right. But it was only the fifth-worst on the list behind 1945 (6.6%), 1949 (3.4%), 1982 (2.3%), and 1944 (2.1%). That’session according to calculations by Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Group in New York. Bandholz, by the way, was one of the people who highlighted the "worst since 1945" in his research account headline.

In a note in face of the government report came out, financial blogger Barry Ritholtz warned in equalization of the enticement to exaggerate the significance of the December work at jobs loss. Ritholtz is bearish on the economy and reported, "I do not expect to see at all nature of jobs recruiting until deep into 2010 at the earliest." But he reported monthly numbers don’cheek by jowl reveal too plenteous as they fluctuate. Noted Ritholtz: "A 500k job loss is still less than a third of a percent of the labor force."

If you want to make long-term historical comparisons of recessions, a improvement measure to use is the unemployment rate. The Labor Dept. says it reached 7.2% in December, up from 6.7% in November. That’s bad. But it’session still not as bad as in the in season 1990s, when it reach 7.6%, let alone the early 1980s, when it topped out at 10.8%.

How Bad, How Fast?

Is it good news that things aren’familiarily quite as awful as the headlines say? Not exactly. It could just mean that, as bad as things seem now, the economy has room to obtain even worse. In fact, the U.S. competent housewifery almost certainly will lose more jobs this year. The only thing economists disagree adhering is whether the economy will get worse at a faster or a slower pace in the months ahead.

Certainly December was a gloomy month. The only sectors that posted gains were education and soundness care, and government. The good husbandry suffered big losses in deal out in small portions, manufacturing, erection, temporary help, and monetary theory, among other sectors. Swiss Re’s Chief U.S. Economist Kurt Karl wrote on Jan. 9 that one key indicator says the current recession will be at minutest as heavy as the one at the beginning of the 1980s. Capital Economics Senior Economist Paul Ashworth said on Jan. 9 he expects the U.S. unemployment rate to point at 9.5%—and not reach that level until the second half of 2010, nearly three years after the recession began.

On the relatively optimistic side of the economic outlook, Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, said before the report that December 2008 might end up being the worst month of the recession in terms of job losses. Zentner was the most accurate forecaster of November payroll losses in Bloomberg’s monthly scan. She underestimated the loss, that turned out to have existence 533,000 jobs, except others were even further off. (The November job loss was revised upward on Jan. 9 to 584,000.)

Zentner thinks things will start looking up in the new year. "The buzz is that December’sitting numbers are abysmal, shocking even. But the general hope, or the feeling absolutely, is that December could be the worst of those dismal numbers," she says. "The losses will not be as great going forward."

Employers Front-Loading Job Cuts

Jessica Hoverson of MF Global (MF) in Chicago is gloomier than Zentner on the point the 2009 outlook. Before the report, Hoverson, who is a fixed-income and foreign-exchange futures analyst, said: "We see the next couple of months as exceptionally out of money. I wouldn’t be surprised if we moved into down 700,000 or 800,000 jobs [per month] in this environment."

Tig Gilliam, CEO of the North American group of temporary-help monster Adecco, says job losses in December and January are being amplified by employers who want to cut a lot now so they won’t have to trickle out smaller cuts in the months to arrive. Says Gilliam: "I’ve had in greater numbers and more conversations where companies are saying it’s conspicuous now that this economic turnaround isn’t coming nimbly. They’re remark we’ve got to get in front of this."

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2009/db2009019_448255.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

The December jobs decline of 524,000 didn’t meet the market’s worst fears, but it was quiescent pretty severe. Next week brings facts on inflation and manufacturing

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U.S. stocks finished broadly appear gloomy Friday on light trading volume following a report December nonfarm payrolls fell 524,000 after plunging a revised 584,000 in October, and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.2% from 6.8%.

The December payrolls number, though modestly above official consensus forecasts, was not as sorry as the 600,000 “speak softly account” some market participants had feared. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% after rising 0.4% the month before, and the average work week barbarous to a record low.

Traders also eyed a report that showed a 0.6% decline in U.S. wholesale inventories and a 7.2% slump in wholesale sales in November.

Recent data pomp the U.S. economy continuing to slide into the worst recessions in decades, according to S&P MarketScope. The weak December job figures were giving investors little reason to support the market ahead of the weekend, adds S&P.

Bonds rose as investors sought the safety of government debt jointly the weakness in equities. The dollar index was solidly higher in a rebound. Gold futures finished stronger. Crude oil futures were lower as the weak household data raised the prospect of softening demand concerning oil and gas.

On Friday, the 30-stock Dow Jones pertaining medium finished lower by 143.28 points, or 1.64%, at 8,599.18. The broader S&P 500 hand shed 19.38 points, or 2.13%, to 890.35. The tech-heavy Nasdaq compounded index fell 45.42 points, or 2.81%, to 1,571.59.

On the New York Stock Exchange, 22 stocks were lower in price with regard to every nine that gained. Nasdaq breadth was 20-7 negative. Trading was slow.

Energy issues were among the worst performers attached the weakness in crude oil futures.

Next week will obtain a fresh wave of fourth-quarter earnings releases, by means of Intel (INTC) and Alcoa (AA) among the worthy of note names unveiling results. Data will subsist weighty before this well by retail sales, the New York Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes, pertaining production, trade, University of Michigan consumer saying, cosnumer price index, producer price index, and denote and export prices adhering the docket. The Beige Book for the month-end policy meeting bequeath also exist released.

No fewer than seven Fed officials will be oratory adhering a range of topics nearest week, including remarks by Chairman Ben Bernanke in London adhering Tuesday.

In relating to housekeeping news Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls dropped 524,000 in December after diving a revised 584,000 in November (from -533,000 previously). October’s 320,000 decline was revised to -423,000 for a gin -154,000 revision over the prior two months. Action Economics notes that some 2.6 million people lost their jobs in 2008.

The unemployment rate climbed to 7.2% from 6.8% (revised from 6.7%), the highest since January 1993. The average workweek fell to 33.3 hours from 33.5. Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% from 0.4% in November. Total private payrolls fell 531,000, with a 251,000 decline in the goods producing sector, a 101,000 drop in construction, and a 149,000 pine in manufacturing. The service sector lost 273,000 jobs. Government added 7,000 workers.

“Though the headline figure undershot the -600,000 whispering, the data are worse than expected given the back revisions, the drop in the workweek, and the unemployment rate, and should remain supportive for Treasury gains and weigh a bit on stocks and the dollar when all is said and done,” says Action Economics.

U.S. wholesale inventories lay low 0.6% in November after a revised 1.2% slide in October (from -1.1%). Sales plunged by a record 7.1% following a 4.5% drop in October (revised from -4.1%). Auto sales fell a whopping 10.6% and are down 24.2% year-over-year. Petroleum sales were down 25.1% and are down 24.0% from a year ago. Much of the weakness in the data was price induced given the collapse in oil prices, notes Action Economics. Excluding oil, sales were down 4.2% and inventories fell 0.4%. The inventory-sales ratio surged to 1.25 from 1.16. The inventory-sales ratio excluding petroleum rose to 1.36 from 1.31.

“These data are original, mete continue to reflect the sharp deterioration in the economy and the subsequent dive in oil prices,” says Action Economics.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009019_226323.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

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LAS VEGAS — The Sync in-vehicle information and entertainment is one thing that’s gone right for Ford as automakers have struggled mightily with the recession. The company is rolling wanting a third succession of descendants of Sync, and a number of Puget Sound area companies have a hand in the effort — Microsoft front amidst them.

Ford CEO Alan Mulally, the former head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, is set to address a modest crowd here at the International Consumer Electronics Show here this afternoon. Read on for a look at Sync and the local companies involved.

The latest version of Sync builds on the hands-free phone and media player functions of the original, introduced in 2007. Ford later added 911 assistance, crash notifications and vehicle health reports.

“Now we’re adding traffic, directions and information,” declared Velle Kolde, product manager in Microsoft’s automotive business unit.

These modern location-aware features require a GPS, so cars by earlier versions of Sync would need additional hardware. Ford has not announced whether it will allow upgrades from older Sync vehicles.

The automaker expects to reach more than 1 the multitude Sync-equipped vehicles on the road later this year. The product originally launched in 12 models. It’s prescribed to expand into 20 models this year. “I think it’sitting Ford’s purpose. to get into pretty much all their models,” Kolde said.

Sync is standard attached many Ford vehicles and be able to be added as an preference to others for $395. The traffic and accusation services are free with a view to the first three years. Ford hasn’t determined what testament happen after that, Kolde said.

The trade information is delivered by Inrix, a Kirkland copartnership headed by Bryan Mistele, formerly of Microsoft’s Automotive Business Unit, and, earlier in his active life, Ford.

Another Seattle company, Airbiquity, provides data-over-voice services for Sync.

Bellevue’session Bsquare, which specializes in mobile and embedded Windows, is also playing a role. The company had $2.6 million in service revenue from Ford in its third quarter, but Bsquare CEO Brian Crowley uttered in an interview exist unconsumed month that his company is not practical to disclose specific details.

“We are working with Ford on the next formation Sync technology. We actually expect to be able to talk in all parts of it maybe later on in the summer,” he said.

The auto industry’sitting troubles had not dampened Bsquare’s enthusiasm for the opportunity in automotive. “We give faith to that there are over 100 in posse customers who are interested in building products based in succession the Microsoft Auto platform,” Bsquare said whereas releasing its third-quarter earnings.

“For us, that’s a big make some change in. from a couple years ago,” Crowley said. “I think Ford in truth opened up a catalogue of eyes in the industry when they did Sync.

It used to be that auto makers went to companies like Continental, Delphi and Panasonics and ordered a constituent with a list of capabilities.

“And a black box came end that fit in the dash,” Crowley said. “Ford said, ‘I’mellay going to break that circle of time. I’medley going to do this all myself.’”

“What we’ve been told by Ford is this is strategic for them and so we haven’t seen any change in that stance at all,” he said.

Microsoft’s Auto platform is being used by Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Lancia and other car makers in South America and Europe. Hyundai-Kia is building on a future lection of the platform and will have cars in market in 2010, Kolde said.

The Windows Automotive platform powers navigation systems in Acura, Honda and Volvo vehicles, though it doesn’t bear Microsoft branding.

Original text: http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/techtracks/2009/01/08/ces_ford_sync_a_ford_feature_with_lots_of_local_ha.html

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Nearly a full year has passed since Microsoft opened its campaign to acquire Yahoo, and later, just its Internet search business. In interviews published today, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer gave his latest cogitative on the matter appears to has changed little in months: He’s interested in buying just Yahoo’s look business.

Ina Fried of CNET News asked Ballmer, How likely he thinks a search deal is.

Ballmer: No way to handicap it. I think at this playhouse, it’s probably fair to say I’m not level sure Yahoo would handicap it. They’re out doing a examination for a new CEO and we’ll just desire to bide one’s time and experience how totality that shakes fully.

Q: You said a little while ago that there weren’t any active discussions, is that still the case?

Ballmer: Yeah. I think probably frank for us not to make comments over much.

Ballmer was a bit more revealing in comments to the Financial Times:

“We now have someone in place running our online function [Qi Lu, a former Yahoo search exec who started at Microsoft on Monday], and Yahoo’session out looking for a CEO.

“If a search deal is to be made, it’session probably to be made in the interim period for new leaders in both places.”

Updating the Yahoo CEO guessing game: Current Yahoo President Sue Decker, via CNET, and Carol Bartz, former executory at Autodesk, by way of BoomTown.

Original text: http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/techtracks/2009/01/08/ballmer_addresses_yahoo_search_deal_questions_in_c.html

On deck: external trade, import prices, federal roll, retail sales, producer and consumer prices, industrial production, and much Fedspeak

By James Cooper

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A raft of economic facts and reports in quest of December in the coming week will just about stop the door on what will likely be the worst quarter for economic growth since the 1981-82 recession. The Commerce Dept. will tally up the full damage in it’sitting first estimate of real gross domestic product for the fourth quarter on Jan. 30. The GDP numbers are expected to show that the brunt of the frugality’s weakness is now shifting from consumers to businesses.

Up to late summer, corporate cutbacks in hiring and first-class expenditure have been relatively demulcent. Companies went into the recession having added conservatively to their payrolls, plant and furniture, and inventories in recent years. Now the plunge in consumer spending that began at mid-year and the new witty round of tighter influence following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy are overwhelming those moderating influences. Companies are slashing costs to preserve what’s left of their produce prospects, and those efforts are showing up in drastic reductions in payrolls and steeper cuts in capital expenditure.

Nowhere is this retrenchment clearer than in the manufacturing sector, as this week’s report without interruption industrial production, along with couple regional surveys of industrial activity, give by will show. Industrial production in the fourth deal out appears to have shrunk more than 9% at an annual rate, which would be the largest quarterly drop since 1980. Manufacturing is reeling under the load of the impact of credit tightening on housing, autos, and first-rate goods.

The week’s report in retail sales is expected to muse the continued weakness in consumer demand, even as falling global demand is hammering exports. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of export orders fell further in December, hitting a fresh memorial low.

Foreign exchange in commerce is also on this week’s agenda, and both exports and imports are expected to show weakness. Sagging U.S. demand is reducing imports, which resolution actually be a plus by reason of GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but any one fall in imports will most likely be swamped by the sudden and drench decline in exports. That means the trade gap will greatest part likely widen, resulting in a net negative drive firmly together on GDP growth.

In addition to the state of economic activity heading into the modern year, emporium attention will also be firmly fixed upon the body inflation. The week offers December reports on the one and the other agriculturist and consumer worth indexes. Both are expected to post hard declines from November, reflecting falling gasoline and other strength costs. However, the markets bequeath be particularly interested the path of heart inflation, which excludes energy and food. Some Federal Reserve officials registered concerns that inflation could fall to uncomfortably low levels in arrival months that could awake fears of deflation. Plunging spirit prices are expected to send overall inflation into negative territory in coming months, but any impress in the core increase rate toward zero would spark deflation worries.

Many Fed policymakers will have plenty of suitable to air their views on deflation and other issues this week. No fewer than seven Fed officials will be speaking on a range of topics, including remarks by means of Chairman Ben Bernanke in London.

Here’s the weekly economic calendar, from Action Economics:

  Top Economic Reports

Top Reports

Date

Time

For

Median Estimate

Last Period

Trade Balance ($Billions)

Tuesday, Jan. 13

8:30 a.m.

November

-$55.0

-$57.2

Goods & Services Exports ($Billions)

Tuesday, Jan. 13

8:30 a.m.

November

$150.6

$151.7

Goods & Services Imports ($Billions)

Tuesday, Jan. 13

8:30 a.m.

November

$203.8

$208.9

Treasury Budget ($Billions)

Tuesday, Jan. 13

2:00 p.m.

December

-$44.0

-$164.4

Retail Sales

Wednesday, Jan. 14

8:30 a.m.

December

-1.2%

-1.8%

Retail Sales (Excluding autos)

Wednesday, Jan. 14

8:30 a.m.

December

-1.2%

-1.6%

Export Price Index

Wednesday, Jan. 14

8:30 a.m.

December

-1.9%

-3.2%

Import Price Index

Wednesday, Jan. 14

8:30 a.m.

December

-4.9%

-6.7%

Business Inventories

Wednesday, Jan. 14

10:00 a.m.

November

-0.4%

-0.6%

Producer Price Index

Thursday, Jan. 15

8:30 a.m.

December

-1.9%

-2.2%

Producer Price Index (Excluding food & energy)

Thursday, Jan. 15

8:30 a.broil.

December

0.1%

0.1%

Empire State Index

Thursday, Jan. 15

8:30 a.m.

January

-24.5

-25.8

Philly Fed Index

Thursday, Jan. 15

10:00 a.broil.

January

-32.0

-32.9

Consumer Price Index

Friday, Jan. 16

8:30 a.fight.

December

-0.8%

-1.7%

Consumer Price Index (Excluding food & energy)

Friday, Jan. 16

8:30 a.m.

December

0.1%

0.0%

Industrial Production

Friday, Jan. 16

9:15 a.m.

December

-0.4%

-0.6%

Capacity Utilization

Friday, Jan. 16

9:15 a.m.

December

75.0%

75.4%

Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)

Friday, Jan. 16

9:55 a.m.

January

59.2

60.1

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009018_805972.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

The world’s largest retailer might not be immune to the housekeeping slowdown succeeding all

By Ben Steverman

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Sometimes humble prices aren’privately enough. The outlook in the place of retailers has turned so ungenial that but also Wal-Mart (WMT) is feeling the effects of the consumer slowdown.

The world’session largest retailer had looked like it was actually benefiting from the household slowdown as consumers flocked to its low-priced offerings. Wal-Mart’s stock posted a gain in 2008, one of just a maniple of large-company stocks to finish so.

But steady Jan. 8, Wal-Mart warned that fourth-quarter profits could have being 12% below previous estimates. December same-store sales, which had been rising strongly in the manner that consumers sought out deals, missed expectations by rising only 1.7% in the U.S.

Pinching Pennies

The supply market was expecting weak retail results from the holiday season, but not necessarily from Wal-Mart. Analysts and investors noted that Wal-Mart customers were buying necessities, such for the reason that groceries, rather than luxury items. Also, discount supplies were attracting cash-strapped consumers who otherwise might prefer more upscale shopping venues.

But Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Gregory Melich notes that half of Wal-Mart’s sales aren’cheek by jowl in groceries but in discretionary items. "If those categories are simple, profits have power to be weak," he wrote in a billet on Jan. 8.

One problem for Wal-Mart: Other retailers, such as Nordstrom (JWN) or Limited Brands (LTD), offered big discounts of their own to attract stingy consumers. Retailers with heavy promotions may have won customers at the expense of "everday estimate" chains like Wal-Mart, says Robert W. Baird & Co. consumer and retail analyst David Cumberland.

Hunting for Value

Also, according to Wayne Titche, chief investment officer of AMBS Investments, consumers may have existence trading below the horizon to cheaper merchandise amid a weakening administration, mete they’re also looking for skilful value. He wonders if Wal-Mart discounted the wrong items in some cases.

"It’s not just trading down. It’s perceived value for the money" that matters, Titche says. Wal-Mart garnered much publicity with its "Black Friday" offerings of deeply discounted flat-screen TVs. But low-quality televisions at a discount won’t attract like many buyers of the same kind with discounts on high-quality TVs, Titche notes. "Just offering merchandise that’s cheaper doesn’t prevail upon someone to buy it."

Of course, the Bentonville (Ark.) behemoth wasn’t alone in its misery. December sales suffered penuriously across the board from bad weather in many parts of the U.S. for the reason that well as from a dramatic cutback in expenditure.

Higher-end retailers were hit hard. Saks (SKS) last month saw same-store sales drop 20%. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) posted a 24% plunge in same-store sales.

At Sears’ (SHLD) Kmart chain, December same-store sales fell 1.1%, but the fetter’s domestic same-store sales was off 7.3%.

Nordstrom reported a decline in same-store sales of 10.6% in December.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009018_275086.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

Hedge funds and other speculators accept had a palm and fingers in oil’s price decline, just as they did in its ascend. But don’t expect congressional hearings now

By Steve LeVine

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When oil prices soared to a peak of $147 a barrel last summer, oil speculators became the whipping boy from Main Street to Congress. Critics demanded that regulators bridle in obstruct funds, pension funds, college endowments, and other investors that had piled into oil futures in a quest for easy profits. But the protests have died away now that prices be favored with plunged by $100. "You don’t grasp Senate hearings when oil prices are low," says Joel Fingerman, managing partner of Chicago-based Fundamental Analytics, a commodities analysis firm. "There’s no politic mileage to be gained."

But just in the manner that the stampede of nontraditional investors into the oil futures market helped to push prices up, their withdrawal has had a hand in bringing them down. Many hedge funds and institutional investors have unwound losing positions or have been forced to sell to join each other margin calls in many in their portfolio, analysts say. Noncommercial traders—mightily investors who never take actual delivery of crude—reduced their long futures bets on the New York Mercantile Exchange by about a fifth over the seven-month period ending in December, from 266,733 in May to 215,665 as of Dec. 22, according to Nymex figures.

"The of the present day speculators—those who were caught up in a herding mentality and helped to object the bubble perturb—have exerted added momentum to the swift price declines," says Bart Chilton, a member of the commission by the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which regulates oil commercial.

Speculators Went Long

True, it was the global recession that dramatically accelerated the slide in petroleum prices. And some of the speculators got out in time to cash in winnings.

The exodus began greatest start, when in a raw state prices soared past $110 a barrel. Unlike oil traders who can be long or short, or sometimes both, in a unwedded day, the newcomers to the market had taken uniformly long positions—that is, they were betting oil prices would continue to go up. When the financial crisis began to worsen, numerous of these investors stopped rolling over their positions when contracts expired, thus removing a crucial underpinning to higher prices. Nymex data show that among noncommercial traders, the designate by number of long positions still exceeds the shorts. But analysts don’t know if this is intentional or whether more are simply having trouble unwinding their positions.

Speculators were not alone in causing the price bubble—commercial traders were behind the last leg in oil’s rise, from about $110 a barrel to its July 11 peak of $147 a barrel, according to Fingerman. But could speculators now be now have being causing prices to overshoot on the downside?

Some seasoned oil hands think at least division of the problem is monetary liquidness—the sell-off has gone in the same state far that there isn’familiarily enough margin lending to finance commercial. Yet there are others, such as Peter Beutel, a New Canaan (Conn.) oil analyst, who believe prices are in sync through the market. "I don’t think $50 oil is a bubble as much as a return swing of the pendulum," Beutel said.

Still-Active Speculators

What if oil prices begin creeping back up? Will the hedge funds, pension funds, and college endowments tiptoe forward the frontier into the futures market? Dennis Gartman, a seasoned oil trader in Suffolk, Va., thinks not: "As Mark Twain said, the cat who has sat on a hot stove won’confidentially sit steady a hot stove afresh—or so much as a cold one—because to him all stoves are hot."

But recent price swings designate that speculators are still active. On Wednesday, Jan. 7, news of a fresh enlarge in U.S. oil and gasoline inventories reversed a large nail in oil prices, to over $50 a barrel, just the day earlier. That had been provoked by the strife in Gaza and the natural gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Oil plunged upon the body Jan. 7, to $42.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on news of a 6.6 million-barrel rise in oil stored in U.S. storage tanks. That was five times the 800,000-barrel increase expected by the market. Tanks now hold 325.4 million barrels of oil, the most since May.

Price Hikes Ahead?

The rising amount of oil in storage at minutest partly reflects the biggest practise gaming on the market after this—that oil prices will somehow rise steadily over the next months and years, a position in the trade called "contango." When contango happens, speculators respond by storing all the oil they can at a price locked in with two futures contracts, with the idea of profiting down the road when they can sell it at that price.

Gartman, the Suffolk (Va.) trader, before-mentioned that if he could get his hands on $10 million, he would pump every cent of it into harsh oil futures. If he bought February 2009 oil futures (selling for $41.24), and a exchange commission as antidote to February 2010 (selling despite $60.22), he would pocket more than 40% utility from covering fees and storage expenses, he says. Too bad banks aren’t lending, Gartman says, though even if they were the world is so awash in crude that in that place is almost no place to store it.

Storage is so excessive to approach by that traders are storing it at sea in 2-million-barrel supertankers. About two dozen supertankers are already hired revealed for storage purposes, and Bloomberg reported in continuance Jan. 7 that oil traders are seeking to let being of the class who many as 10 more.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2009/db2009018_370800.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

With options fast becoming part of mainstream investing and driving profits for online brokers, TD Ameritrade’s proposed purchase is saner than it first appears

By David Bogoslaw

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You would think that the widespread market carnage from beginning to end the past year or further would have reality enough to scare most deal out in small portions investors not present from risky investments like options, but that’s not the token being sent by TD Ameritrade’s (AMTD) proposed cash-and-stock deal, valued at $606 million, to attain online options broker Thinkorswim Group (SWIM), announced on Jan. 8. Ameritrade is the No. 2 online broker in terms of mart capitalization, behind Charles Schwab (SCHW).

Options trading is the fastest-growing segment of the online brokerage assiduity, and while options certainly aren’t appropriate for the unschooled or less sophisticated investors, they can help investors protect their portfolios in declining markets. And investor education tools in the same state as those offered by Thinkorswim have helped arm more investors by the confidence they need to wade, if not dive, into these murky waters.

The fact is, options are currently the greatest in number profitable segment of the online brokerage creation, and options-dedicated firms like OptionsXpress (OXPS), the largest independent options brokerage, and Thinkorswim have been doing well even end the markets’ declines, according to Robert Ellis, senior vice-president of the funds management group at Celent, a Boston-based financial research and consulting firm. Active online traders "took advantage of the mart declines using options in a distance that buy-and-hold investors couldn’t," he says.

Options Trading Goes Mainstream

The merger of options education Web place Investools and online agent Thinkorswim nearly two years ago was greeted with a lot of skepticism in the market, but the combined company’s success has been proof of the synergies that exist betwixt education and trading action, says Richard Fetyko, an analyst at Merriman Curhan Ford (MERR). Those synergies hold enabled Thinkorswim to grow its trading volume at a faster pace than each OptionsXpress or TD Ameritrade, he adds.

"I think that combination has gotten the attention of some of the larger online brokers and also acknowledgement that options trading is no longer purely a platonic commercial tactics in favor of high-end retail investors, that it’s becoming further mainstream," he says.

And that realization has companies like Ameritrade and Schwab scrambling to fortify their platforms’ ability to trade options, in response to the loss of market share to stronger options platforms like Thinkorswim in recent years, he says.

One conception that options volume has grown 25% by the year in succession average in the place of the past 10 years is increasing awareness that options can avoid investors better manage their risk and add gains to their portfolios, says David Fisher, chief executive at OptionsXpress. One of the more conservative strategies that beginning options investors use is the purchase of puts, which give holders the right but not the bond of duty to barter a stock at a specified price above where it has fallen. A second one is selling covered call contracts against existing stock positions in your portfolio to generate income even if stock prices aren’t moving up, with high levels of volatility pushing up prices without interruption calls, says Fisher. "It’s easy to show people in this market in what condition [these transactions] make sense," he says.

Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009018_070323.htm?campaign_id=rss_null

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Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/globespotting/archives/2009/01/republicans_don.html