Banks’ Credit Quality: 2009 Outlook Is Dim
S&P Ratings says that even with a government security net in place, U.S. banks’ overall reliance quality is likely to continue to deteriorate for the period of the next year
By Barbara Duberstein and Rodrigo Quintanilla From Standard & Poor’s RatingsDirect
By some measure, the U.S. banking industry has endured extraordinary shocks in 2008 that we expect to reverberate through the sector for years to come. Heading into 2009, startling systemic events have shaken the financial services industry. Among these are the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings, the forced sales of Bear Stearns & Co. and Wachovia, Citigroup’s (C) sway support bale, and the regulatory seizure and sale of Washington Mutual.
Heading into 2009, although the banking industry is confronting fluidity and confidence challenges, it now has in place monetary support from the U.S. government, including programs oblation excellent injections and debt guarantees. These are highly meaningful, system-stabilizing influences, but in Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services’ view, even with this safety net of supportive system-wide measures in place, the credit quality trends of U.S. banks will, as they have in the past, mirror the course of the economy. As the U.S. recession drags on,, banks’ overall credit status is likely to continue to deteriorate during at least the next year, in our eye. We await a further increase in loan take upon credit costs and continued high loan-loss provisioning to eat into income into 2009.
Our core credit observations in spite of the U.S. banking sector in 2009 include the following:
• Our current ratings outlook for the U.S. banking industry through 2009 is negative, mainly reflecting deteriorating relating to housekeeping conditions and mounting asset-quality problems. On the heels of our negative ratings actions and outlook revisions in 2008, we project that negative rating actions command continue to sharply exceed positive ones in 2009. However, we will likely understand a further divergence in the fundamental performance of individual banks, and this will be reflected in our ratings.
• Given the high rank of uncertainty in the global economy and markets, we calculate upon the assiduity to be constant to be at one’sitting command to global market concerns about systemic shocks (system-wide liquidity and counterparty intrepidity risks) through at minutest betimes 2009. However, our industry outlook assumes that these concerns will not revert to the peak September-October 2008 crisis levels that followed the Lehman bankruptcy. This is because the U.S. government has clearly demonstrated its direct support for the industry at times of systemic financial crisis through safety net programs so as the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and numerous other guarantee and liquidity measures.
• Beyond its role in regulation, the U.S. government’s involvement in the banking industry as a unbroken has become a central essay in the credit analysis of the industry. The polity’sitting reaction to the global pecuniary crisis has become precarious to the stability of the global pecuniary system. The government’s willingness to take extraordinary measures to support the sector is not completely sudden, given the U.S. banking industry’s vital importance to the hale condition of the world economy. In articles of agreement of our analysis of individual institutions, we include the government’s support as a significant credit commission merchant for those institutions that were identified as being systemically important. More generally, we incorporate into our analyses the funding and excellent benefits of programs such being of the class who the U.S. Treasury’s direct preferred-stock investments in numerous U.S. banks, the FDIC guarantees on new debt issuances from participating banks, and the Federal Reserve’sitting numerous liquidity programs.
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