Marcial: Hot Stock Bets for 2009
The bulky stimulus package bodes considerably on this account that battered blue chips same AT&T, GE, and Microsoft as well as biotech and inexperienced energy shares
By Gene Marcial
What now, Dow Jones? Without a suspect, the big question confronting investors is whether the stock market has bottomed, with the Dow Jones pertaining average recently up more 7% in just eight days after tumbling 36.79% from its record closing prominent of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, 2007.
Many analysts may take the liberty to wrangle, but some savvy strategists assert that verily the market hit bottom on Nov. 20, 2008, when the Dow finished the sitting at 7,552.29, its lowest closing since Mar. 14, 2003.
It isn’t surprising that investors on the whole are continually very skeptical, if not gone transplant opposed to putting one more dollar into equities because of the devastation of the market, with global financial crises and a deep recession battering stocks.
But whether or not shares have reached a low, investors should recognize that the new year and the forthcoming massive spending from President-elect Barack Obama’s redemption proposal bodes well for the mart. The ambitious program, set to take the first step in February, should lift investor and public confidence across the nation. The plan will bolster the economy with bulky outlays and should help persuade financial institutions to lay open credit they bear restricted so very much, helping to boost business spending formerly again.
Cheap Blue ChipsCertainly there will be doubters, but even now many asset managers have been snapping up stocks they look for to appreciate as a result of the Obama program. Some, such as those of companies expected to benefit from infrastructure rebuilding, already regard taken off. For persistent pressure, since Dec. 20 shares of heavy outfit maker Caterpillar (CAT) have jumped 49%, while tractor manufacturer Deere’s (DE) stock has leaped 40%. Steel industry shares also have suddenly boomed: AK Steel (AKS) has jumped 106%, Allegheny Steel (ATI), 88%; Nucor (NUE), 85%; and U.S. Steel (X), 88%. Predictably, shares of companies that fill construction aggregates such as sand, gravel, and stone also have bumped up strongly: Vulcan Materials (VMC) climbed 70%, and Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) 73%. Even so, some analysts believe these sectors have the potential to go higher.
But investors should not be blind to other value opportunities the savaged market provides, largely as a result of enormous government intervention in the financial, auto, housing, and mortgage sectors.
The temptation is for investors to subsist very preservative in their investments and "wait for the right time" to invest, notes George Putnam, editor of The Turnaround Letter, who says divers are even "considering abandoning stocks forever." With the yearly return of the S&P 500-stock index down 6% considering the opening of the decade, that doesn’t surprise Putnam. But he says this is exactly the wrong time for investors to pull away.
"We believe the trunk market will put in the mail a strong rebound in the not-too-distant future," argues Putnam. With the mart’s immense decline in 2007, many blue-chip stocks of the highest quality are trading at discounted levels not seen since the 1990s, he notes.
Indeed, Putnam and other bulls recommend that investors have the pluck to pick up high-quality stocks now commercial at 30% to 50% off their 2007 highs. But in these still financially fragile times, shareholders should converging-point on companies through a record of steady earnings growth, strong cash liquefy, and leadership in their respective markets. And in most cases, a company should have a clean and healthy balance sheet and great free cash spring to fund healthy dividends.
Original text: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009016_880169.htm?campaign_id=rss_null
