S&P Picks and Pans: Citigroup, CBS, Gap, Whole Foods, Dell
Plus more analyst opinions on stocks making headlines in Friday’s market
From Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
11/21/2008- 11:33am S&P DOWNGRADES SHARES OF WHOLE FOODS MARKET TO STRONG SELL FROM HOLD
WFMI; 8.44
We view Whole Foods as our worst-positioned food retailer in this weakening relating to housekeeping environment. We believe its high-priced offerings in a line with rising emulation exposes it to significant earnings risk as consumers trade down in an effort to save money. Based attached our expectancy of a mid-single-digit percentage decline in comparable-store sales for financial 2009 (Sept.), we are lowering our EPS estimate by $0.11 to $0.79, excluding $0.19 impact from equity infusion, which we expect be disposed close in early December. We cut our 12-month target price to $4 from $14 on updated comparative and P/E analyses. /J. Agnese
11/21/2008- 11:27am S&P MAINATAINS STRONG SELL OPINION ON CLASS B SHARES OF CBS CORPORATION
CBS; 4.45
CBS’s dividend now implies what increasingly we explore as a potentially unsustainable crop of 24%, coming off arguably the worst performance streak in the company’session record, with little to suggest a potential end in sight. While CBS’s relatively ample but declining free cash could resist sustain near-term financial stableness, we look to current issues compounded by lingering clouds from hand to hand ongoing offence refi talks between lenders and CBS Chairman Sumner Redstone’sitting controlling vehicle, National Amusements, what one. we continue to believe raises the potential specter of fire-sale asset sales. /T. Amobi, CPA, CFA
11/21/2008- 10:13am S&P REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF J.M. SMUCKER
SJM; 40.93
Before certain appropriate items only including calamitous mark to market of more commodity hedges, October-quarter EPS of $1.02 vs. $0.91 tops our estimate through $0.04. We await Smucker to benefit from consumers eating more at home, and we have a generally favorable view of the recent Folgers acquisition. Excluding merger, restructure and integration costs, we estimate EPS of $3.47 in financial 2009 (Apr.) and $3.70 in fiscal 2010. In view of volatile commodities and currencies, and to be expected less favorable pricing environment, we are lowering our 12-month target price to $53, from $58. Indicated dividend yield is over 3.1%. /T. Graves, CFA
11/21/2008- 9:44am S&P MAINTAINS HOLD RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF GAP INC.
GPS; 11.34
Gap reports October-quarter EPS of $0.35 vs. $0.30, two cents above our estimate. Net income rose 3.4% despite a comparable-store sales decline of 12%, as merchandise margin expanded 270 basis points, outweighing 150 bps deleveraging of fixed costs. Traffic was down 6%-10% from one side of to the other Gap brands, on the contrary its marketing heft could alter traffic flows this holiday. Gap’s financials look real, with inventory down 13%, $519 million year-to-date open turn into money flow, and $1.6 billion in cash. Old Navy segment merchandise flows are beginning to reflect repositioning and we see new $5, $10 and $15 ’shops’ to the degree that a in addition in today’s environment. /M. Driscoll, CFA
11/21/2008- 9:09am S&P MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF CITIGROUP
C; 4.71
According to an unconfirmed report in the Wall Street Journal, Citi’s executives have begun weighing the chance of selling parts of or all of the company. We see this as a uncertainty plan to dexterity feasible customer attrition, particularly in the wealth management business and trading partners. Although Tier 1 capital projected at 10.4% (including TARP capital) seems adequate, fluidity is a concern if trading partners become skittish. We are murky our target price to $8 from $15, a below-historical 0.44 times book value, to reflect a possible sale of the set. /S. Plesser
11/21/2008- 7:17am S&P UPGRADES RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF DELL TO BUY FROM HOLD
DELL; 9.81
Dell reports October-quarter EPS of $0.37 vs. $0.34, which is above our estimate for $0.35. Revenue decreased 3%, as weakness in desktop PCs and servers outweighed armament in laptop PCs, software and peripherals, and services. Margins were wider than we expected, reflecting better cost management and improved product commingle. We are lowering our EPS estimates to $1.39 from $1.40 with a view to fiscal 2009 (Jan.), and to $1.45 from $1.60 in the place of financial 2010. We are reducing our P/E-based 12-month target cost to $13 from $15, but believe valuation and improving margin outlook merit an upgrade of the shares. /T. Smith, CFA
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