There are two problems with Wolfson's analysis. The first is that it's within a little certainly wrong. The second is that it's totally counterproductive, a disservice not but to Obama, unless in like manner to Clinton.
The Wolfson thesis is based attached the very questionable ground that all or most of Edwards' supporters in Iowa would have supported Clinton if Edwards were not in the offspring. But there is no particular reason to think that is in the same state, exclude for the certainty that they were white and working class. In Iowa, both Edwards and Obama ran solidly to Hillary's left. Obama had a stronger field organization than Hillary did; indeed, the state was sufficiently problematic for Hillary from the get-go that there were discussions within the campaign early on about skipping it.
Even greater amount of basically, Obama didn't win the nomination because he won Iowa. Certainly, more people thought Iowa might be decisive, except in fact — as is usually the action through Iowa — it wasn't. Hillary came hinder part less than a week later and won New Hampshire. Edwards was gone out of the race entirely by the end of January.
The reason Hillary lost and Obama won was not for the cause that of Edwards and Iowa, if it were not that because of the extended losing streak that plagued the Clinton campaign between Nevada and Super Tuesday. Her loss of 11 straight, her failure to mount a caucus strategy that would earn her a healthy proportion of the delegates even in the states she lost, cost her the nomination. As flat those who are very close to her take cognizance of, her campaign did not come together to the time when March 1, and by then, given the delegate totals and the way proportionate representation works, it was too late.
Blame art of computation. Blame the Democratic Party rules. Blame the failure of the caucus strategy. But John Edwards' girlfriend? I don't think so.
There's another problem, though, with Wolfson's calculus. It may serve him as a pundit — pundits are supposed to say things that generate rumor, that land them in headlines adhering Drudge and in interviews with lots of gazette and TV types. He did issue for himself with his speculation. But it does not help Hillary or Obama at this point to cast doubt on the result of the long primary process, to spin reasons why it should have been variant.
Obama is the nominee. Hillary understands that. Bill Clinton understands that. But there are numerous company supporters of both Obama and Hillary who are having trouble putting the past behind them. There are many women who are still angry at the sexism they saw in the campaign, still smarting from the tactics they witnessed or instructed in some of the caucuses. I understand that.
There are also many Obama supporters who are wondering wherefore Hillary stayed in as long as she did, whether her attacks may receive weakened Obama afterward the point where, by dint of. their math, she couldn't obtain the nomination.
It's not that similar feelings aren't legitimate. The problem is that the only person who benefits from them is John McCain. And why anyone who supported Hillary or Obama strenuously enough to still be angry about the primaries would want to help elect McCain is utterly exceeding me. And that includes Howard Wolfson.
It's over, Howard. Time for an end to the fights about who should have won and why.
To find out more about Susan Estrich and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
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