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At Friday's closing bell, it looked like there was little relief in sight from deserter oil prices and the lack of reassurances from bank on the eve their already gloomy outlooks.
Investors have a mind face a blitz of household premises in the holiday-shortened week, with the marquee number coming in Thursday's payrolls report for June.
Recession fears are swelling with uncooked oil's dizzying spiral to a series of vestige highs and the relentless tide of forecasts toward more bank write-downs. When the second cut to pieces ends on Monday, the U.S. emporium may finish June through its worst monthly percentage decline since September 2002.
"The combination of a banking system that is on its knees and high commodity prices is just making investors nervous," uttered Ray Rund, managing manager and chieftain of research at Shaker Investments in Cleveland, Ohio. "Even though we are not technically in a recession, it certainly feels that custom."
U.S. oil futures shot up to a record high rightful a penny shy of $143 a barrel on Friday — wrapping up a week when the president of OPEC predicted that oil prices could rise as high as $170 in the coming months. Gold hit a one-month high.
The Dow Jones industrial medial sum (.DJI) finished the week etc. 4.2 percent, during the time that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) slid 3 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) dropped 3.8 percent. It was the worst week for the Dow and the Nasdaq since February 10.
SHRINKING PAYROLLS, SLOWER FACTORIES
The outlook for the U.S. job place of traffic is grim, based on forecasts for Thursday's payrolls report. Economists polled by Reuters expect a loss of 60,000 jobs in June, compared with a decline of 49,000 in May. The U.S. unemployment rate, however, is predicted at 5.4 percent, a slight improvement from May's 5.5 percent, what one. was the highest subsequently to October 2004.
Thursday's data will comprehend the Institute for Supply Management's June public recital on the vast services sector — a day before the market closes for the Independence Day holiday on Friday. The ISM service-sector index is pegged at 51.0 in June, compared with 51.7 in May, the Reuters poll showed.
On Tuesday, two reports will get scrutiny: the ISM's June integral part on the U.S. manufacturing sector and U.S. car sales.
The ISM manufacturing index is forecast at 48.6 in June, down from May's 49.6, with a reading beneath 50.0 signaling contraction, the Reuters poll showed.
Gasoline prices at $4 a gallon are slashing the demand since gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles. This week, the domestic animals of Dow component General Motors Corp (GM.N) plummeted to a 53-year soft after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on GM to "sell" and warned it would have to raise capital.
Domestic car sales apparently declined in June to an annualized pace of 5.29 million units from May's rate of 5.36 a thousand thousand, while domestic truck sales are predicted to be favored with slowed to an annualized rate of 4.92 million in June from May's 5.12 million, the Reuters crop showed.
The ADP National Employment Report, a private employment survey, is due out on Wednesday, along with a report adhering May factory orders.
In contrast, proceeds reports behest be thin.
Any data that shows some life in the economy will help relieve some concerns for investors, analysts said.
But the market is eager to see that the pack close of the credit decisive turn on banks is abating before in that place can be any meaningful rebound in stocks.
MORE MAALOX MOMENTS?
Adding to investors' queasiness is the Federal Reserve's decision this week to take a break from cutting interest rates in the same proportion that the threat of inflation becomes more inauspicious.
To analysts, the Fed's growing discomfort with inflation suggests that it may choose to put its worries about growth on the back burner and focus instead on price stability.
The Fed on Wednesday left its benchmark fed funds rate at 2 percent, fracture a cycle of cutting its target rate for overnight bank loans by dint of. 3.25 percentage points since mid-September 2007.
"My exterior conception is that we could test 11,100 on the Dow in the next couple of days," said Victor Pugliese, director of listed equity mercantile at Broadpoint Securities in San Francisco. "I ween the market still trends down and on the supposition that we can hold at the 11,000 or 11,100 mark, somewhere in there, in that place's a chance we be able to get a bear market mock for a few days."
During Friday's session, the Dow briefly tipped below the entrance that market technicians define as a bear market, falling more than 20 percent from its record closing high set final October.
A bear market is marked by a prolonged circuit of falling stock prices. It is not considered functionary unless there is a market close of 20 percent below the most recent closing high. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) venture its lowest daily close in 21 months on Friday — inferior than 15 points away from ending 20 percent below its record finish on October 9, 2007.
"Considering that the Dow is at its lowest since 2006, the question is whether the S&P, Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 demise come the Dow in breaking March and January lows," said Peter Boockvar, fair play skilful general at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.
"The path of least opposition is down and those indices force of will come the Dow down in breaking those levels. Whether this happens next week, or the following or even next month, I slip on't know. I slip on't know when it's going to happen. I just know it's going to happen."
Notable earnings reports next week among S&P 500 companies will come from tribute preparer H&R Block Inc (HRB.N) forward Monday, for-profit tuition company Apollo Group Inc (APOL.O) on Tuesday and super-discounter Family Dollar Stores Inc (FDO.N) on Wednesday.
Also set to command attention next week are speeches on the plan through two key Fed officials: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart is scheduled to give brief remarks at an event on Tuesday evening in Washington, D.C., while Federal Reserve Board Governor Frederic Mishkin speaks on Wednesday in Israel.
(Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this one can be e-mailed to: ellis.mnyandu(at)thomsonreuters.com )
(Additional reporting by Walker Simon; Editing by Jan Paschal)
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